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  • Writer's pictureJoel White

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Over the years I've grown more skeptical of anyone's ability (including my own) to consistently forecast the future. I take the perspective that strong existing trends typically persist for longer than seems likely possible in their early phases, and that smart [leaders / investors / consultants] are far better off planning for how they will handle the continuation of those trends, instead of assuming their January assumptions will still be valid in December.


In April I listed several key trends worth watching and planning for as 2022 played out. Below is my perspective on how those trends have played out the past 4 months:

Directional Trend from April

Current State

The US Dollar continues its incredible bull run

Yes- the US Dollar Currency Index has strengthened another 7-8% the past 4 months

USD and Euro reach parity

Yes- at parity as I write this

10 year US Treasury rate, having blown past 3.0%, heads towards 3.5%-4.0%

Not so much- the rate has bobbed up to 3.5% and down to 2.5% but has spent most of its time in 2.8%-3.2% range

Large pharma equities keep outperforming while small and midsize biotechs keep getting smashed

No- while biotech equities remain weak but mostly stable, large pharma equities have also weakened

Inflation stays above 6-7% for at least 6 more months

Yes, globally

The US economy enters a recession

Consensus lacking on US- Europe and Asia are far more problematic

The Chinese economy enters a financial crisis

No- it looks ugly though

Russia and Ukraine are still fighting 6 months from now (i.e., October)

Highly likely

Would love to hear your thoughts on these trends and others you follow closely. Reach me at joel@marketcapconsulting.com or book a meeting on my calendar.



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